How Drop
Chances Work

Why rare items
feel impossible to get

If an item has a very low drop chance, farming it can feel unfair:
“It’s a 1% drop – why haven’t I gotten it after 100 runs?”

This frustration is normal.
But in most cases, the game’s RNG is actually working as intended.

Each attempt
is independent

The most important rule of drop chances:
Every attempt is independent of the previous ones.

If an item has a 1% drop chance:

  • every run has exactly 1%
  • failed attempts do not increase your odds
  • the game does not “remember” your bad luck

After 100 failures, the next run is still 1%.

What a 1%
drop chance really means

Low percentages are often misunderstood in practice:
A 1% drop chance does not mean you’ll get the item after 100 tries.

Think of it like this:

  • each run rolls a 100-sided die
  • only one number wins
  • the die is rolled fresh every time

That’s why long unlucky streaks can – and do – happen.

Cumulative chance

While each run is independent, results add up over time:
Cumulative chance shows how likely a drop was after many attempts.

For a 1% drop chance:

  • after 50 tries: ~40% chance
  • after 100 tries: ~63% chance
  • after 200 tries: ~87% chance

After 300 attempts, around 5% of players will still have seen no drop. In other words, 1 in 20 people can be this unlucky.

Understand your result

Calculate how likely your outcome actually was
based on drop chance and number of attempts.
Open the Drop Chance Calculator